Azerbaijan could face years of Iranian retaliation if it joins the war, expert says

Published: 2026-03-16 13:50

"After the drone strikes, after the foiled bomb plots, after placing its military at full combat readiness and pulling its diplomats out of Iran, Azerbaijan sent humanitarian aid across the border. Not to the Iranian regime, but to the ethnic Azerbaijanis living in Iran... Baku had every reason to escalate: a $5 billion military, a mutual defense pact with Turkey, Israeli-supplied precision weapons designed for exactly this scenario, and a public that had just watched Iranian drones almost hit a school. Instead, Azerbaijan chose restraint. Why? Because Baku is making a cold calculation based on historical precedent," Bruce Pannier, Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center, said in a video posted on the center’s YouTube channel.

"The United States and Israel have a pattern. They strike hard, degrade capabilities, but they often stop short of finishing off their enemies. They didn't finish Saddam Hussein in 1991. They didn't finish Hezbollah. They haven't finished the Houthis. If this operation follows the same trajectory, if Iran survives, battered but intact, then any country that joined the fight will have to live with the consequences long after Washington moves on... Joining a war that might not end decisively would leave Azerbaijan exposed to Iranian retaliation for years, maybe decades. That's not a risk worth taking when you're sitting on top of Europe's most important alternative energy corridor," Pannier added.

By Azerbaijani-Israeli Alliance Global News