RAND: Trump-mediated Armenia–Azerbaijan peace could unlock trade routes bypassing Russia and Iran

Published: 2026-01-13 13:02

"The Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement, mediated by President Trump in August 2025, has the potential to transform one of the most intractable conflicts on the territory of the former Soviet Union, and to unlock trade and transport routes from Asia to Europe that bypass both Russia and Iran... If the West wants to claim a rare diplomatic victory in the Caucasus, sustained engagement will be required in 2026... While Russia aims to both rebuild a mutually beneficial relationship with Baku, and undermine Pashinyan’s pro-Western government in Yerevan, it also wants to reassert its role as regional arbiter. The peace agreement mediated by President Trump directly undermines this role, meaning that Moscow is now more likely to seek opportunities to play spoiler," according to RAND, a think tank affiliated with the U.S. Department of War.

By Azerbaijani-Israeli Alliance Global News