Arab media: Israel is preparing a “Ukrainian scenario” of indirect war against Iran via Azerbaijan

Published: 2025-06-30 05:50

Iran remains the main obstacle to the project of Israel and its allies aimed at creating a “new Middle East by fragmenting existing states or replacing their governments with loyal, neutral, and weakened regimes," according to the Arabic-language news site Annabaa.

The article claims that the pause in hostilities does not mean Israel has “accepted the current reality.” Rather, it is simply “regrouping after realizing that the cost of a full-scale war with Iran exceeds its capabilities.”

According to Annabaa, Israel is no longer pursuing direct military confrontation with Tehran, but is instead rethinking its tools of pressure. Possible scenarios include “destabilizing Iran internally, an assassination attempt on the Supreme Leader, or the ignition of a regional conflict” via third parties. In this context, Azerbaijan is seen as “a likely candidate due to its shared border with Iran and close security cooperation with Israel.”

The article warns that Israel may seek to replicate a “Ukrainian scenario,” using Azerbaijan as a "frontline state to entangle Iran in a draining and prolonged conflict without initiating direct warfare." Given Azerbaijan’s strong ties with both Turkey and Israel — as well as increased intelligence activity on its territory — the risk of a border conflict remains.

If Azerbaijan secures regional and international support, it "could become the arena for an open conflict,” in a role similar to that of Ukraine in the confrontation with Russia, Annabaa notes.

By Azerbaijani-Israeli Alliance Global News