Caucasus Watch: If U.S.-Israeli strikes target Iranian nuclear infrastructure, Azerbaijan could be drawn into war with Iran

Published: 2025-06-02 06:11

"Azerbaijan’s foreign policy, once defined by strategic ambiguity and pragmatic neutrality, is being reshaped by the gravitational pull of mounting U.S.-Israel-Iran tensions. While Baku continues to articulate a commitment to neutrality, its actions—particularly deepening defense and intelligence cooperation with Israel, supporting trilateral frameworks with Tel Aviv and Washington, and increasing diplomatic visibility—are eroding this posture," notes the Germany-based analytical website Caucasus Watch.

"Should U.S.-Iran nuclear talks collapse and U.S.-Israeli military strikes target Iranian nuclear or military infrastructure, Azerbaijan could find itself drawn into a regional conflict with Iran, either through a deliberate decision—should Baku’s cost-benefit analysis justify it—or due to external perceptions by Iran... While Azerbaijan may aim to maximize its balancing strategy among regional powers or adopt a mediating role between Iran and the U.S. and/or Israel, unstable regional developments—exacerbated by the aftermath of the Trump presidency—have significantly constrained the space for neutrality available to small states like Azerbaijan," Caucasus Watch adds.

By Azerbaijani-Israeli Alliance Global News